The giant third wave is coming. Starting in September 2019, credit dried up completely in the interbank lending markets: a key part of the monetary system where banks trade overnight loans known as repurchase agreements — or repo for short. The problem is black swans can only be secondary. Read everything Jess … On Seeking Alpha, an article reveals the "machinery" that could be the main reason that the markets are more violent than a caged bear: The Fed's actions from September could have been a sign that a major bank was in trouble, or that they are beginning to lose control of the short-end of rates. The moment all three developments were spent, around the fall of 2019, is the moment when the market for repurchase agreements (the repo market) suddenly froze. What a doozy. Make a contribution in their name, and we'll send them a personalized thank you note. Twitter. From last July: https://t.co/pZl363yMFa pic.twitter.com/Aq6MJxBzMC— Pomp (@APompliano) March 9, 2020. The repo market came under stress in September as demand for funds to settle Treasury purchases and pay corporate taxes overwhelmed loans available. Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. In 2008, Bush had to beg Congress for cash. Was this evaporation of billions in market value solely due to the coronavirus? A A A; THE FEDERAL RESERVE announced that it will extend through October the ad hoc liquidity lifeline that it’s been offering to US funding markets since a spike in rates in the middle of last month. Which brings us to the end of February, where the meltdown appears to have begun on February 24, with a 3,800 point drop in the Dow Jones by the 28th. © 2020 Newsmax Finance. He just the took the money from the public and gave to the banking system. Examine your savings, and ask yourself if they're as diversified as you'd like for them to be. The virus isn't the cause, it is the accelerant. The 'Repo Machine' that Could Whip the Markets Into a Frenzy. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities). In 2008, we had the R.E. And if we do go into a recession, or even a depression, will we see COVID-19 as the "black swan" that the second-rate economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb made famous in 2008? Typically, the overnight repo rate trades in line with the Federal Funds rate, which is currently targeted at 2 to 2.25 percent by the Fed. There were no surprises. Facebook. Lehman Bro’s. This virus is a ***monster*** #covid19 Please retweet. And the big question remaining is: Will Trump's administration change course in time to prevent a full recession, or not? The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (always there to rescue Wall Street from its hubris; see “Related Articles” below) had to jump in and infuse $53 billion into the repo market. Researchers refrained from naming the banks. Jake the Muss Black Belt. Jeff Cox @jeff.cox.7528 @JeffCoxCNBCcom. Google+. But is COVID-19 a black swan? There are no centi-billionaires anymore. In October, those fears were justified, even though Fed Chair Jerome Powell carefully chose the term "organic balance sheet growth" to mask the return to "QE-like" operations. The next crash will likely lead to the end of the fiat money system, along with the entire welfare-warfare state. Peter Reagan is a financial market strategist at Birch Gold Group. and soon the stock market crash. But the issues started bubbling up again. It had already briefly blown out at the end of 2018, then settled back down. Sign up for the latest news and to win free tickets to events, The easiest way to find Seattle's best events, All contents © Index Newspapers LLC The REPO market is therefore a key element in the refinancing of financial institutions. Dear reader, Every surfer knows giant waves come in sets. As this is the 90th anniversary of the October 1929 crash, we’d thought we take a look at what happened during October on decennial anniversaries. The “repo” market, which is short for repurchase agreements, is part of the nondeposit, shadow banking system that remains largely unregulated despite the fact that it was ground zero in the 2008 financial crisis. Joined: Jan 14, 2005 Messages: 6,255 Likes Received: 202 Location: Earth. The article by Kevin George finishes with a piece of advice, to read beyond the headlines: Most importantly, investors should read beyond the headlines and consider what's happening in the repo market. But many see them (and for political reasons, want everyone to see them) as primary—meaning, as the leading cause of a crash. This triggered a selloff on Wall Street that's darkening the only bright spot on Trump's otherwise scandal-ridden presidency. Finally, it arrived in Kirkland, a city in the Seattle area. | Thank you! Font Size. In this way, a black swan is simply a ruse. The first two stages occurred under Obama; we entered the third the day Trump won the White House. Which brings us to today. Stock Your Home Bar And Decorate The Tree With Westland Whiskey! overcome situational anxiety and other stressors this holiday season. In 2019, Trump did no such thing. The need for the Fed to shove billions into the repo market to keep that market’s interest rate near the Fed’s target shows the Fed is losing its power to control the price of money. Pinterest. By. It also seems like "correction" may be the norm, for the near term, at least. Current | Bio | Archive. Then it went on cruise ships, then popped up in a Christian community in South Korea, then it went to Iran, where it has killed prominent politicians, and Italy, where it has shutdown city after city. The Federal Reserve has quietly reversed the previous tapering to flood the market with liquidity, but the repo problems started before the Coronavirus was even heard of. | We’re in big trouble folks. The crash was supposed to happen last Monday and then Tuesday. American. They sell securities they hold in repurchase agreements (repo). We are truly grateful for your support. The repo market designates a mechanism used by banks to obtain short-term financing. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology. Links will not be permitted. Repo Madness According to a new study by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the repurchasing crash occurred because of the consternation of financial institutions about lending cash and the demand by hedge funds for secured funding. There is no doubt, if stocks don't stage a turnaround soon, the coronavirus could bring the U.S. economy to its knees. Does the Federal Reserve play a key role? Twitter. Charles Tonderai Mudede, The Stranger’s film editor, is a Zimbabwean-born cultural critic, urbanist, filmmaker, college lecturer, and writer. Meaning, it's a scam (also known as shadow banking) to avoid the kind of regulation that stabilizes markets but often at the cost of the kind of rapid, short-term growth the super-rich desire. As the year draws to a close, we'd like to THANK YOU for your ongoing support and readership. Repo Madness According to a new study by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the repurchasing crash occurred because of the consternation … Privacy Policy October 7, 2019 | 12:01 am. The Dow briefly recovered, only to get torpedoed again. Who knows what 2019 will bring, but there are some potential market breakers churning in the background—impeachment, the chaos in the repo market, Iran, and the looming Brexit date. New York Fed Headquarters Building in Lower Manhattan If the Federal Reserve was looking for a media lockdown on news about the trillions of dollars in cumulative repo loans it has funneled quietly to Wall Street’s trading houses since September 17 of last year, it could not have found a better cloud cover than Donald Trump. All rights reserved. Back then, a sudden 10% jump in repo market borrowing costs caused panic and liquidity problems. Takedown Policy. The Coronavirus panic has therefore been a convenient excuse to extend the stimulus and liquidity provision by slashing rates towards zero. Or, put another way, it's quantitative easing (QE). The day after the Surgeon General's appearance on TV, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the leading market indicator) fell nearly by 8 percent. December 10, 2019 “It’s About To Get Very Bad” – Repo Market Legend Predicts Market Crash In Days from ZeroHedge Which brings us to the end of February, where the meltdown appears to have begun on February 24, with a 3,800 point drop in the Dow Jones by the 28th. You may recall that from 17 September 2019, the United States Federal Reserve injected massive amounts of liquidity into banks due to a quite abnormal situation on the repo market. Your one-time or recurring contribution will help ensure that we will be here to navigate it together, come what may! Fed to pump liquidity into repo market. Surgeon General Jerome Adams is in his 40's and insists that 73 year old trump is healthier than him.And he refused to say how many people have been tested for the coronavirus.We can't even trust the goddamn Surgeon General, folks.https://t.co/xCIRPQDiuF— BrooklynDad_Defiant! Privacy Policy | Don't let them feed you the nonsense that this was a black swan. An unknown event? .authImage{float:left;margin-right:10px;height:60px;}.artPgByline,.artPgDate{display:block;margin:0 0 3px 0 !important;float:left;width:330px;}span.artPgByline:first-of-type {margin-top: 5px !important;}.cta_brand{display:none !important;}.an-summary{display:none !important;}.an-special{display:none !important;}div#nmWidgetInstream-text div.nmWidgetInstream-post {margin:0 !important;}div#nmWidgetInstream-text div.nmWidgetInstream-post a {text-decoration:underline !important;}div#nmWidgetInstream-text div.nmWidgetInstream-post a.nmTitle{padding:0;}div#dfp2 {left:-10px;}.DFPInArticleNMX a {font-size:16px;text-decoration:underline;}#mainArticleDiv p:last-child {font-size: 15px;line-height: 20px;}#mainArticleDiv p:last-child > a {font-size: inherit;font-weight: bold !important;} Some have argued that nothing of the kind (a black swan) happened with the crash of 2008. Facebook. And the reason we can be certain of this is the debts on the feds' books are growing again (they stopped around 2014, when Obama ended the first round of QE). The economy does not need to function in this way. He has also written for the New York Times, Cinema Scope, Tank Magazine, e-flux, LA Weekly, and C Theory. The market sprung a leak last week. “It’s About To Get Very Bad” – Repo Market Legend Predicts Market Crash In Days. SGT - December 11, 2019. The biggest waves come in threes. But there is another entity that could cause even more panic in the markets than a virus, and that's the Federal Reserve. Fears of a return to quantitative easing (QE) started to emerge later that month. Originally published Sunday, September 29, 2019 ... such as we have seen start to happen in the repo market in recent weeks, requiring emergency intervention by the Fed. Don't blame me for your stock market crash. That is, by the way, a world record. And black swans are as real as unicorns. We've never experienced a year like 2020. Oct. 22, 2019 (EIRNS)—Sen. None of this is at all true. The feds stepped into the repo market and began supplying cash. 431. The same happens in the financial world. You can see how much liquidity that the Fed has injected in the repo markets in the official balance sheet. Celebrate the holidays with a complimentary Westland ornament with each purchase of two bottles. Falling reserves make repo rates rise (2019 repo rate in red line) -- that's clear. So, basically, the markets are crashing because of an event that could not be foreseen and has made the future unknown. 800 Maynard Ave S, Suite 200, Seattle, WA 98134, Contact Keep discussions on topic, avoid personal attacks and threats of any kind. (@mmpadellan) March 8, 2020. Tuesday, December 10, 2019 "It's About To Get Very Bad" - Repo Market Legend Predicts Market Crash In Days From Zero Hedge: For the past decade, the name of Zoltan Pozsar has been among the most admired and respected on Wall Street: not only did the Hungarian lay the groundwork for our current understanding of the deposit-free shadow banking system - which has the often opaque and … Or both? Terms of Use thefirstemporer said: ↑ The crash was supposed to happen last Monday and then Tuesday. As the Precious Metal IRA Specialists, Birch Gold helps Americans protect their retirement savings with physical gold and silver. The September mayhem in the U.S. repo market suggests there’s a structural problem in this vital corner of finance and the incident wasn’t just a … By the end of July, the repo problems made their way into the Fed’s meeting, as we learned when the minutes of that meeting were released in August. The press and mainstream economics can blame them (the big surprise) and not how the markets operate or are regulated. Two, corporate buybacks, which, for sure, expanded under Obama but exploded under Trump. By Peter Reagan Published Fri, Dec 13 2019 9:19 AM EST. Yahoo Finance's Brian Cheung breaks down what the repo market how it works. As you can see, a total of about $500 billion has been injected since September 2019, which is when the Fed started the new "repo machine" back up. Takedown Policy, Contact | Support local, independent media with a one-time or recurring contribution. A major sign of financial distress in the US economy kicked in in mid-September of 2019 when there was a breakdown in the normal operation of the Repo Market. Samantha LaDuc-September 18, 2019. Dave Kranzler was among many people (including us) in December 2019 who thought a market meltdown was on the way, thanks to these ongoing Fed liquidity operations. Generally, sets of three. The Fed reacted by injecting billions in cash in attempts to restore sanity (and liquidity). The third was the huge tax cuts of 2017, much of which was spent on buybacks. The markets crashed because they were empty of all caution and became a vast Ponzi scheme with a large number of speculators borrowing to pay interest on money they borrowed to buy bets. By. With an annual volume of $2-4.5 trillion, we understand its importance. The repo market is a wonky but important part of our financial system that’s crucial for keeping money moving in this economy. REPO Market Madness… and Flash Crashes!?! We literally couldn't have made it without your generosity. You can even gift it to a friend! One, the removal of anything like moral hazard upon Trump's election. Friday, 13 March 2020 06:46 PM In fact, the Fed has already been creating uncertainty in the markets since last September. Suddenly, lending rates spiked to 10.5% in a matter of minutes, a rate not seen since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). ALL THE WARNING SIGNS WERE THERE FOR MONTHS. The repo market is important because it serves as the grease that keeps the global capital markets spinning. That means if you miss the first two waves, turn and head out to sea. WhatsApp. In mid-September 2019, overnight money market rates spiked and exhibited significant volatility, amid a large drop in reserves due to the corporate tax date and increases in … are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Report: Supreme Court Rejects Texas Elex Lawsuit... Giuliani to Newsmax TV: Legal Fight Will Go On... Trump Slams Barr, SCOTUS Decision in Twitter Attacks... Dershowitz to Newsmax TV: Supreme Court Just Didn't Want to Get Involved... Texas GOP Chief Suggests Forming 'Union of States' After SCOTUS Tosses... WEF's 'Great Reset' Holds Grave Consequences for Economy, Fed Opens Door for Digital Dollar (And Battle for Your Privacy), Joel L. Naroff: Cooling Labor Will Eventually Heat Up Inflation, Francesca Ortegren, PhD: 10 Tips for Winning a Real-Estate Bidding War, Report: Supreme Court Rejects Texas Elex Lawsuit, Giuliani to Newsmax TV: Legal Fight Will Go On, Trump Slams Barr, SCOTUS Decision in Twitter Attacks, Dershowitz to Newsmax TV: Supreme Court Just Didn't Want to Get Involved, Texas GOP Chief Suggests Forming 'Union of States' After SCOTUS Tosses Election Challenge. This repurchase market in the United States is important in maintaining liquidity in the financial system. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) wrote a public letter to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Oct. 18, breaking the strange silence of American elected officials and media over the liquidity crisis in the interbank market escalating since Sept. 16. QE, what a filthy name! Then the virus made its appearance in China. Google+. But the run on repo can be stalled in one of two ways: (1) banks raise new equity capital, or (2) the Fed injects more dollars into the system. This plan worked, but it also has increased the fragility of the markets and their dependence on public cash, which is politically unpopular (this is why most do not know about the great repo market crash of 2019 and its estimated $900 billion bailout). Email. But the funny thing about this operation is, it's not, as the mainstream business papers and blogs often put it, greasing the machinery of the markets; instead, it's just pumping money directly into insolvent banks and financial institutions. This year, we're asking you to give yourself and Seattle the gift of The Stranger by supporting us with a year-end gift. Sure, the repo market is flashing red sirens. If they're not, consider assets that can help to add some counterbalance and help to preserve some measure of stability for the months to come. It was not a black swan, but a Minsky moment. The problem is that the system as it is (sky-high in debts) has little to no shock absorbers because they require regulation, and regulation, as Wall Street never fails to tell us, hurts economic growth, and if there is no growth in the economy, then there will be no growth in the job markets. The Repo-Crisis of September 2019 O n Tuesday, September 17th. | The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. This is the crash, and if completed, it will lead to the first stage of the cycle, which I call confidence (Minsky calls the hedge stage)—the next is exuberance (Minsky calls the speculative stage), the third is frenzy (Minksy's Ponzi finance). 2021 will be another epic ride for Seattle, and we want to navigate it with you. Precious metals like gold and silver could help protect your savings in case this downturn turns into the next recession. The markets simply followed a pattern that was well described even in the 1970s by the first-rate US economist Hyman Minsky. 0. The reason why this market exists is to free banks from their capital requirements. According to a report one firm provided Fortune, overnight rates have breached the upper Fed rate an average of once a month since 2018 and spikes have grown larger over time. Terms of Use | Key Points. Repos have been used in the past and the big lending banks are supposed to lend to each other banks to fulfill overnight lending needs! Mudede collaborated with the director Robinson Devor on three films, two of which, Police Beat and Zoo, premiered at Sundance, and one of which, Zoo, screened at Cannes. Dave Kranzler was among many people (including us) in December 2019 who thought a market meltdown was on the way, thanks to these ongoing Fed liquidity operations. What this means is that an exotic policy tool used to re-inflate the value of markets after the crash of 2008 was used not after but before a crash. The Ponzi moment was fueled by three developments. It sure seems like a mix of coronavirus fear and the Fed's "repo machine" have helped to stir the recent market panic and resulting correction. pic.twitter.com/quLgm8lkSY— The Black Swan: 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic (@gruebelschnictr) March 2, 2020. Consider this a Public Service Announcement. Share. Is COVID-19 a cover-up for the 2019 repo market crash? TheFirstEMP, Dec 22, 2019 #3. More than ever, we depend on your support to help fund our coverage. But for now, repo rates at cyclical lows. Linkedin. Three veterinarian-recommended tips to help your pets. The moment all three developments were spent, around the fall of 2019, is the moment when the market for repurchase agreements (the repo market) suddenly froze. The markets today, March 9, 2020, are only re-injecting the system with big doses of caution. The repo market blew out in mid-September. Went under like a flash in the hot frying pan was when the FEDs brought out their big guns! Discover more by clicking here now. The $1 trillion "repo market" allows banks and other financial institutions to borrow and lend from one another, usually overnight. Two waves, turn and head out to sea the Stranger by supporting us a! Under stress in September as demand for funds to settle Treasury purchases and pay corporate overwhelmed... Emerge later that month rate in red line ) -- that 's clear this evaporation billions. You miss the first two waves, turn and head out to sea their big!... ) happened with the entire welfare-warfare state third was the huge tax cuts of 2017, much of was... 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